Thoughts on 4th July British Election
My analysis of the political situation, what a 'good' election would look like for us, and who you should vote for.
5th May 2024 Update: Check out my newest article written after Farage announced that he would return to lead Reform here:
So, a general election has been called for the 4th July, rather amusing for my American readers.
It’s clear that Rishi Sunak was delaying the inevitable. Whether the election was called now or in January 2025, he would almost certainly not be Prime Minister by the end of it. The reason why he has chosen now is because there was also talk of a leadership challenge, because from the Tory perspective, things could not possibly be any more dire for them than they are now, so they may as well try their luck with another leader.
I feel the need to write this article because I have gained a not insignificant following. With that following comes a responsibility to advocate for how I think people should vote, and how I will be voting.
I should link my various articles that I’ve written on British party politics.
And also
’s article.Basically, my view is that the Conservative Party today is similar to what the American GOP was in the 1970s. There are some good MPs, but just as many Cameronite/Mayite ‘CINO’ (Conservative in Name Only) MPs, from the Tory Reform Group, One Nation Caucus, and those associated with the think-tank ‘Bright Blue’, who carry the majority of the blame for why the past 14 years have been completely wasted and have only entrenched Blairism.
Our goal needs to be to get rid of as many CINO MPs as we can, in order to shape the opposition rump of the Tories to be as ideologically aligned with us as possible.
Reform’s Terrible Strategy
Hope not Hate Fiasco
I expect many of you will dislike Reform UK because of their throwing of candidates under the bus to appease Hope not Hate.
My position on this is as follows: I do believe parties should have the right to ensure their candidates are of good quality and do not bring needless media controversy. However, the way Reform did it was arbitrary and based on Hope Not Hate’s definition of racism. They should have warned each candidate beforehand that they were responsible for cleaning their social media history, a clear explanation of what was acceptable and unacceptable, and base this on their own definition of racism, not Hope not Hate’s.
For instance, if candidates had used ethnic slurs that they didn’t go back and delete after being warned about this before being selected, that would be grounds for removing them, but talking in an intellectual way about HBD as an explanation for unequal group outcomes should not be.
Richard Tice, as a boomer conservative, does not understand these important distinctions, and is wedded to a notion of colorblindness that has proven to be unworkable. The fact that Reform has no democratic party structure and is just a ‘corporation party’, even less reformable than the Tories which at least does have a formal membership structure, makes prospects for internal change limited.
Standing in Every Seat
However, Reform’s purpose is as a ‘spoiler party’, as they almost certainly won’t get many seats due to the First Past the Post system. Their purpose is to push the Conservative Party to the right, like UKIP did on Brexit.
And it is a failure to understand what their purpose is, entertaining delusional notions that they could completely replace the Tory Party, that has led to their terrible strategy.
Firstly, Reform made the massive misstep of deciding to stand in every seat, not distinguishing between ‘Common Sense Group’ and ‘New Conservative’ Tory MPs and the dreaded CINOs (Conservative in Name Only’s) in the ‘One Nation Caucus’ and ‘Tory Reform Group’.
Of course, I sympathise greatly with the narrative of Conservative betrayal, these 14 years have indeed been totally wasted, and the party has completely and utterly betrayed those who voted for it.
But it is important to ask WHY it became that. It was not because of MPs like Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch, who tried do take action but were thwarted. It was because over half of the Tory MPs are ‘One Nation’ (aka, Blairites) who are ardent supporters of ‘human rights law’ and ‘British soft power’ and will obstruct any radical measures, with their obstruction assisted by the Deep State Civil Service. Indeed, this is why measures like the Rwanda Bill had to be completely watered down and bogged down in the Lords and the courts, and won’t ever be implemented.
Also, Richard Tice is only marginally better than the ‘median Tory MP’, and quite a lot worse than the likes of Badenoch and Braverman. If Lee Anderson was leading Reform, it would be a very different beast, but Tice is a boomer conservative who is running on a Thatcher tribute act.
There is only room for one party in Britain to the right of the Tories, and that party will serve as a spoiler to push the party to the right. Because of this, it should only stand, and spoil, in seats where the incumbent Tory MP or the Tory candidate is a CINO.
As I have mentioned, if the Tories get under 100 seats, as is predicted, it will be more aligned with us than if there is a narrow Labour victory as a lot of the CINOs tend to be in ‘middling seats’.
But still, it will be worse than if the need to discriminate BETWEEN the various MPs was more widely understood. As it stands, Miriam Cates will definitely go, and Damien Green will definitely stay.
An effective electoral enterprise would have done a scorecard of every Tory MP, and decided whether to stand on the basis of the individual MP. ‘One Nation Caucus’ and ‘Tory Reform Group’ would go. Even ‘right-wingers’ like Steve Baker should be ‘spoiled’ due to his pro-LGBT views. But John Hayes, Danny Kruger, Edward Leigh, John Redwood… these people should be re-elected. Unfortunately it’s too late to create a comprehensive scorecard system now, but we should use the information we have available to inform the way we vote.
The Stupidity of #ZeroSeats
I am not somebody who endlessly parrots out #ZeroSeats. I think that slogan is very destructive.
Firstly, because it won’t happen. They may be reduced to under 100 seats but they won’t get zero. The failure of Reform to break through means that we are not facing a ‘Canada 93’-type scenario.
Secondly, it paints all Conservative MPs with the same brush, meaning that many CINOs will stay and many ideologically-aligned Tory MPs go.
Whilst the influence of Anglo-Twitter is limited and would probably have not been the difference between whether these MPs kept or lost their seats, especially given Reform’s idiotic strategy and the fact those two examples are extremely marginal and extremely safe, ‘Zero Seats’ sloganeering has drowned out all attempts to make these important distinctions. ‘Meme power’ should have been spent on opposing the CINOs rather than the entire Conservative Party.
Academic Agent at this point I will say is an utterly toxic influence on public discourse. His only role is to promote purity spirals, black-pilling, and a posture that ensures alienation from mainstream politics and the lack of achievement of our objectives. His talk of ‘containment’ and ‘controlled opposition’ is extremely rich given that he regularly hangs out with a tr00n.
I also must say that, whilst useful as an analytical tool, Elite Theory has become a means by which political engagement is shunned and people retreat into their comforting ivory tower. Saying ‘Cthulhu only Swims Left’ and ‘The Only Way Out is Through’ lets you off the hook because it means you don’t have to do anything.
Unfortunately, the ‘Zero Seats’ meme has so much momentum behind it now I’m unlikely to change the public mood.
Realistic Expectations
We’re going to get a Labour government, and yes it will be bad. But I am not a J’Accuse-style doomer who thinks ‘Starmer getting into power will mean the Tories can never again be re-elected and everything will be hopeless’. That just isn’t true. Despite the terrible laws that will be passed, in terms of cultural impact, opposition might actually be good for us, so long as we use the time in opposition to build up a counter-elite akin to the Heritage Foundation’s Resource and Personnel Banks, as I explained in my counter-elite article.
Our goal needs to be: utilising the power of the right-wing spoiler to reshape the Conservative Party.
We need to use said spoiler to achieve the objectives of the Conservative Democratic Organisation. The ‘rump’ of the Tory Party needs to elect one of the leader candidates of the two that will go to the runoff that promises to enhance party democracy as outlined by the CDO, at the very least an annual general meeting with an enshrined party constitution, and the method of leadership election outlined in the constitution and remaining consistent each time. A set of core principles, like the Canadian Conservatives, as well as a more open selection process for choosing local MPs, will be crucial to transforming this party.
People say ‘oh, the Tory Party is irreformable’, but many people said that about the GOP. In this moment of pessimism, there were many third party attempts made by American Conservatives, like the Constitution Party. But in a FPTP system, they are always doomed to fail. The only chance one has of success is by taking over the more ‘right-wing’ of the two parties.
This will be harder in Britain as our parties are a lot more bureaucratic, which is why democratic reform of the Tory Party is so necessary, and how we use our votes in this election needs to be oriented towards that purpose. But the Conservative Party membership has frequently revealed itself to be far more right-wing than the Tory MPs, a large portion of them imposed by David Cameron and his ‘modernisers’ dreaded ‘A-List’.
The goal should be to give the Conservative Party a crushing electoral defeat, but ‘zero seats’ will never happen and nor should it happen. The party should be reduced to under 100 seats, but with as high of a proportion of those MPs being staunch right-wingers and supporters of the reforms advocated by the Conservative Democratic Organisation as possible. When right-wingers take over the leadership, they should purge the CINOS from CCHQ, and withdraw the whip from any MP that does not totally commit to rolling back the Blairite state.
Unfortunately MPs like Miriam Cates are almost certainly going to go. But for many others, them staying or going is up in the air, and one should use the limited power that a citizen has in a representative democracy, the power to vote every 4/5 years.
Voting Guide
So, for my British readers who are eligible to vote, I strongly recommend you vote on the basis of the local candidate.
Look and see whether your Tory MP is in the ‘One Nation Caucus’, a list is provided here on Wikipedia. If they are listed here, definitely do not vote for them, and vote for a right-wing spoiler party instead, best to vote Reform because a large national vote share will signal to the Tories that they lost because they were not sufficiently right-wing.
If your Tory MP is in the Common Sense Group, New Conservatives, or Cornerstone Group, you should definitely vote for them and not vote for a spoiler candidate.
Unfortunately, as there has not been research done into this and the election has come earlier than many of us expected, there is not a comprehensive list of Tory MPs that are on our side and those that aren’t. However, Wikipedia lists some of the most prominent ones in each camp, which you can find by clicking on the links. If you can, go to your local hustings and ask questions to your Tory MP directly.
If you are unable to get information, I would recommend not voting for the Tory candidate as they deserve to lose, and a period in opposition is necessary for their renewal.
‘Sex Matters’, that is a prominent pressure group against transgender ideology, has also started the ‘single-issue’ approach I advocated here. I am unsure whether they will compile a constituency by constituency guide, but that would be very helpful.
You should also vote for Lee Anderson, who was Tory and now is Reform, if you live in Ashfield. If you live near Ashfield, go and campaign for him by getting in touch with Ashfield’s Reform campaign by emailing ashfield@reformuk.com
Somewhat distantly, I would also recommend if you live in his constituency, voting for George Galloway, and his ‘Workers Party of Britain’ would be a decent choice if the Tory MP is a CINO. Whilst I have many ideological differences with Galloway, he is the most based MP in the House of Commons when it comes to the LGBT agenda, and a representative of the ‘Old Left’ that is far superior to the Woke.
Some more MPs who you should vote for if you’re in their constituency:
Kemi Badenoch
Suella Braverman
In addition to the MPs that come up on the ‘One Nation Caucus’ list on Wikipedia, do NOT vote for:
Any ‘LGBT Conservatives’ you should not vote for, and should vote for a spoiler if in their constituency. There is a list of their MP ‘patrons’ here.
If you’re in a seat held by another party other than the Tories, you should vote either Reform or SDP.
Conclusion
This will be a disheartening election for those of us on the right. This government has utterly betrayed its base and any renewal of the Conservative Party will need to have them be in opposition first; the Conservatives deserve to lose. However, there’s no doubt that Labour will be worse, with its various measures like the Race Equality Act and full support of the draconian smoking bans. We can expect the lackluster, half-hearted measures of Rishi Sunak’s government to push back against Woke to be reversed.
But this election can be consequential for shaping the future of the British right. It is important that we focus on who the real enemies are, the Cameronite CINOs, and not friendly fire against Tory MPs who share our worldview. Our goal should be to mainstream our ideas in mainstream conservative circles and within the party itself, get rid of the CINOs, democratise the party, and start making it a proper vehicle for a cultural counter-revolution against Wokeism.
The period in opposition will be crucial. This election can be the start of a period of renewal for the British Right, and the Conservative Party’s transformation into a truly based party.
Nice. Yes it's a good angle to not see the tories are either good or bad, but just the good ones don't have enough power within the party. Despite the overall disaster of what the party has achieved, nevertheless nearly all the good right wing figures in Britain are or have been in the Tories.
This House of Lords group called New Issues Grop (NIG) is also very worthy:
https://hopenothate.org.uk/2023/02/24/investigation-the-new-issues-group/
Any House of Commons member associated with it or any of the people behind it is a proper Conservative candidate, as are all non-MP electoral candidates from any party.
If Christian Concern or the Christian Institute endorses any candidate, it as a good sign of approval as well.