British 2024 Election Results: Analysis and the Steps Forward
A Labour landslide isn't a cause for celebration, but the results should give us a clear picture of the path ahead for the Right.
So, the results of the 2024 election are in. It is indeed the Conservative Party’s worst ever performance, with their number of seats lower than their previous worst performance in 1906.
Results
I will also only list parties that won seats in Great Britain, and exclude the Northern Irish parties.
National turnout was 60%, a 7.6% decline from the 2019 election.
The results are as follows:
Labour:
Seats: 412
Seat Change: +211
National Vote Share: 33.7%
National Vote Share Change: +1.6%
Conservatives
Seats: 121
Seat Change: -250
National Vote Share: 23.7%
National Vote Share Change: -19.9%
Liberal Democrats
Seats: 71
Seat Change: +63
National Vote Share: 12.2%
National Vote Share Change: +0.6
Scottish National Party
Seats: 9
Seat Change: -38
National Vote Share: 2.5%
National Vote Share Change: -1.3%
Independents (Muslim Vote and Corbyn)
Seats: 6
Seat Change: +6
National Vote Share: 2%
Share Change: 1.4%
Reform
Seats: 5
Seat Change: +5 (from 2019 election as Brexit Party)
National Vote Share: 14.3%
National Vote Share Change: +12.3% (from 2019 election as Brexit Party)
Greens
Seats: 4
Seat Change: +3
National Vote Share: 6.8%
Share Change: +4.1%
Analysis
Conservatives and Reform
The Conservatives absolutely deserved to lose this election, even though Labour will be worse.
is disappointed that they didn’t get under 100 seats, and indeed many polls showed they would get between 50 and 100 seats, (even he privately acknowledged that ‘zero seats’ was not meant to be literal), but their ‘worst ever result’ I’d say is still pretty good.My original fear of Reform standing in every seat has been confirmed. When Nigel Farage came into the race, I said there was a small chance of Reform outpolling the Tories, and there being a ‘Canada 93’ situation. However, after reaching a peak in the polls, where they were intermittently outpolling the Tories nationally, a smear campaign reduced their vote share, so they ended up polling similarly to how I hoped they’d do under Richard Tice (though with hindsight, with Tice it would have been less).
Engaging in ‘selective spoilage’, where Reform would not stand in certain seats where good Tory MPs were the incumbent, would have been the far more optimal strategy. It would have given them a unique opportunity to ‘shape the rump’ so the Conservatives could become a properly right-wing party.
Reform did get more seats than I expected. I only hoped Lee Anderson and Nigel Farage won, and would have been happy with that. Richard Tice won his seat, which to be honest he didn’t deserve to given how he threw candidates under the bus to try and appease Hope Not Hate.
But whilst many good Tory MPs have stayed (Badenoch, Braverman, Kruger, etcetra), a lot of bad ones have also stayed and a lot of good ones gone.
Nothing better demonstrates the utter stupidity of Reform standing in every seat than in Miriam Cates’ constituency in Penistone and Stocksbridge.
Cates was a terrific MP, of far better quality than most Reform candidates. Reform standing here was disgraceful, because if they had endorsed her, she would have won.
Meanwhile, Alicia Kearns, a Woke CINO, has kept her seat because there was no Reform candidate to stand, as the previous was removed for ‘racist comments’. Bear in mind, no matter how much Richard Tice and Nigel Farage bent over backwards to remove candidates to appease Woke mobs like Hope Not Hate, the establishment still smeared them as racist, day in, day out.
How many times do right-wing parties need to learn that they will be called racist no matter what they do, and that trying to not be just ends up playing into the hands of the enemy and demoralising and demobilising the base?
Anyway, outside of the issue around candidate removal, it is gobsmacking that Reform let this amazing opportunity to ‘shape the rump’ of the Tories go to waste. Had they been a more focused operation, they could have ensured the Conservative Party fell into their hands.
What was stopping this was simply nice-sounding, emotionally gratifying sloganeering like ‘Zero Seats’, and personal vanity.
Already, the likes of David Gauke are writing their drivel about how the Tories need to ‘reject populism’ and ‘return to the centre (Wokeism)’ . The CINO faction is alive and kicking, Alicia Kearns, Caroline Nokes, Tom Tugendhat, and Jeremy Hunt are still there, and somebody from the CINO ‘One Nation Caucus’ has a decent chance of becoming leader.
Even if they don’t, and a right-winger like Badenoch or Braverman (who luckily both kept their seats) were elected, they would still have to bend over backwards to appease the ‘wets’, with the CINOs always voting to obstruct even the most mild pushback against Blairite legislation and bureaucracies.
There is no future for a party of the right that tries to negotiate with this ‘One Nation Caucus’, accepting them as part of a ‘broad church’. They have thwarted any and all attempts over the past 14 years to get immigration under control or take proper action on Wokeism, and are not ‘right-wing’ in any substantive sense. In order for the right to have any future in Britain, it is vital that this faction of the Conservative Party gets ‘Zero Seats’, as a ‘church too broad cannot convert’, and indeed this fifth column has been behind the ruination of our nation perhaps even more so than Tony Blair.
The strategy for 2029 has to be a targeted operation to remove the CINOs from Parliament. A scorecard system must be developed for all Conservative MPs and candidates, and only those that are properly tough on the culture war and on immigration should get our vote. We must fight hard to persuade others that ‘selective spoilage’ is the right move.
After expressing some doubt when Nigel Farage entered the race and when Reform started temporarily outpolling the Tories, I now believe the strategy that me and
came up with before Farage entered was the correct one. Me and him decided to wait until after the election to determine what our strategy going forward would be, and it is clear that ‘Zero CINO Seats’ is the correct approach for 2029.We should support Farage and Lee Anderson being re-elected, though Tice’s sell-out to Hope Not Hate cannot be forgotten. For Tice’s constituency of Boston and Skegness we should work with Patriots United to stand a party to the right of Reform. I hope that Patriots United can be persuaded to see the merits of mine and Steven Stoppard’s ‘selective spoilage’ approach.
Labour
Labour’s national vote share was significantly less than expected. They only got 33% of the vote, their thrashing majority only because the right was divided between the Conservatives and Reform. This was only 1% better than Corbyn in 2019, and if turnout is taken into consideration, got around 600,000 less votes.
This is incredibly embarrassing for Keir Starmer. He definitely did not ‘win’ this election as much as the Conservatives lost it. Whilst the landslide might be on the scale of Tony Blair’s in 1997, there is virtually no enthusiasm for Keir Starmer. UnHerd’s article shortly before the election, ‘What is Keir Starmer’s Nightmare Scenario?’, where it emphasised how it is important for a winning party to get over 40% of the vote, has come to fruition in a way more extreme than even they expected. Fraser Nelson from the Spectator echoed a similar point in his article ‘Labour’s Potemkin Landslide’.
What this means is that I wouldn’t take it as a given that Labour will be in power for a decade or more. The sharp swing from 2019 to 2024 shows that the same thing could easily happen from 2024 to 2029. Labour has a history of ‘one-term landslides’ only to lose the next election (1945 - 1951 and 1966 - 1970), something that only Tony Blair was able to break. Starmer is already not very popular, and when in office he will naturally become less as he is made to answer for the country’s problems.
The fear of Labour making ‘irreversible changes’ is I think overblown. Keir Starmer has actually downplayed the Brown Commission on Lords Reform, insisting that they will only make piecemeal changes to the House of Lords. Once in power, Labour has always shown limited enthusiasm for constitutional issues. The failure to repeal Blairite legislation is entirely with the ‘wet’ Cameronite and CINO Tories.
I must confess that the Lords Reforms Brown proposes ‘in and of themselves’, of having the elected upper chamber being a constitutional protection branch, are rather good ideas and I wouldn’t oppose them. I only oppose them because of the things being protected (Human Rights Act, Equality Act, etcetera). The Brown Commission’s elected upper chamber may actually be an improvement over the status quo, allowing parties of the right to win in the upper chamber and repeal Blairite legislation, which may be why Keir Starmer is putting it off.
Opposition also presents the advantage of no longer being the ‘establishment’. Counter-cultural energy will flow to our side, like it has done under Biden in America, and how it is under Macron in France. The war of position needs to be entirely focused on purging the CINOs, so that there isn’t another David Cameron-like figure who reinforces the paradigm set by Blairism. The counter-cultural energy needs to be fully channelled into an effective anti-Woke vehicle.
Conclusion
This new Labour government will be worse than what we’ve had. To his credit, Rishi Sunak did block Scotland from passing an extremist transgender bill, and has offered some mild pushback from the trans lobby. Labour will find it impossible to resist, and if they do resist on transgenderism, they’ll make up for it with more Wokeism elsewhere, like the hideous proposed Race Equality Act.
But all of this can be repealed if we have a clear plan going forwards, to remove the CINO fifth column and to unite the right behind anti-Wokeism and resistance to demographic change.
Don’t give into the black-pill! Nothing is irreversible, nothing is settled, and no cause is ever truly ‘lost’ if people keep on believing in it.
I am trusting that Labour will get bogged down in real problems (demographics, economy) so won't be able to do too much ridiculous and brainless stuff (Woke policies, going after drag hunting, hating the countryside). Most of the biggest issues like immigration (both legal and illegal) supporting an unwinnable war in Ukraine and overseeing the general crumbling of Britain will be the same with any elected government.
Now is the time for the Tories to reflect on why they lost. If their conclusion is they lost through not being centrist enough then they are idiotic and happy to just wait their turn for when the electorate tires of Labour. If they realise that right wing voters actually want right wing policies enacted (not talked about) then it will be easy for them to make rapid inroads in Starmer's mandate.
Overall Reform's presence has done a great deal more good than harm in purging the Tory party of moderates. Yes, it could have gone better if they'd been more targeted about it, but it's still a positive overall, especially with Farage at the helm.
I don't see young people converting to the Tories any time soon. Without Reform in the game, many right-leaning young people probably wouldn't vote at all. And that would be a terrible shame.